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Research and reports
Last updated: 02/02/24 by yb
Market update and reporting of finalized activities 2023
Click here for an overview slide for each finalized activity in the current year.
Localized annual plan 2024
Last updated: 02/02/24 by yb
As before, the expert group expects growth in Switzerland’s GDP (sporting event-adjusted) to be well below average in 2024 (1.1%; September forecast: 1.2%). In the course of a gradual recovery of the global economy, growth should normalise at 1.7% in 2025. Risks in connection with the monetary environment remain at the forefront.
The Swiss economy grew moderately in the 3rd quarter of 2023, supported in particular by the
service sector. In the more cyclically sensitive areas of industry, value creation declined again.
In many cases, the current indicators are at below-average levels and point to a moderate development of the Swiss economy in the near future.
Until recently, the global economy was characterised by a high degree of heterogeneity. The
US economy grew more strongly than expected in the third quarter, while economic growth in
China was also substantial. In the eurozone and Germany, on the other hand, the weak per-
formance of the previous quarters continued, particularly in the industrial sector. Overall, global
demand is likely to grow more slowly than the historical average in the forecast period and is
expected to be curtailed by international monetary policy, as before. However, there are cur-
rently no signs of a global recession; labour markets have remained sound up to now, while
inflation is falling internationally.
Against this backdrop, the expert group is forecasting economic growth in Switzerland of 1.1%
in 2024 (September forecast: 1.2% for 2024, compared with 1.3% in 2023). This would mean
significantly below-average growth of the Swiss economy for two consecutive years. In partic-
ular, the subdued momentum in the eurozone in 2024 is likely to hold back the exposed areas
of the Swiss export industry. Declining capacity utilisation and higher financing costs are ex-
pected to curb investment activity. Private consumer spending can still be expected to provide
some support: employment should continue to grow, albeit at a slightly slower rate than previ-
ously forecast. As a result of the economic slowdown, the average unemployment rate for 2024
is expected to rise to 2.3%, compared with 2.0% in 2023.
As in other countries, inflation is also falling in Switzerland. After an annual rate of 2.1% in
2023 (September forecast: 2.2%), inflation should come in at 1.9% in 2024 (unchanged fore-
cast). While current business surveys point to easing price pressure thanks to lower purchas-
ing prices and full inventories, and industrial tariffs will be abolished on 1 January 2024, rising electricity tariffs, VAT adjustment and rent increases are likely to have an inflationary effect. A
significantly lower inflation rate of 1.1% is not expected until 2025.
The pandemic has led to a significant change in the distribution of markets. there is a clear trend towards more domestic guests.
Although the number of overnight hotel stays by domestic guests is expected to fall slightly between 2024 and 2026, it is expected to remain stable at a higher level than before the pandemic.Tourism regions that have benefited from an increase in Swiss guests during the pandemic could experience lower growth in the future.
Switzerland recorded a record number of overnight stays in summer 2023. This was despite weakening domestic demand compared to the very strong previous year.
Although current domestic demand remains stable, a certain weakening is to be expected. This is partly due to the normalisation of travel habits, but also to the slowdown in economic momentum.
(Source: Prognose für den Schweizer Tourismus, Oktober 2023)
The Swiss market focuses primarily on the personas Lou, Kris and Pat. They reflect 75% of all guests in the market.
Find more information about the personas here.