Market – Brazil

ST Brazil is composed of two other team members, with whom we cover the whole spectrum of impactful marketing.

Campaigning and Activation, Media

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	Natalia Leal, Marketing Manager Brazil	
Contact LinkedIn	+55 11 98967-3883 natalia.leal@switzerland.com www.linkedin.com/in/natália-leal-35912443

Trade

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	Mara Pessoa, Trade Manager Brazil
Contact LinkedIn	+55 11 93039-1110 mara.pessoa@switzerland.com www.linkedin.com/in/mara-pessoa

• ST market research page –– here
• ST Research Report Brazil 2024 –– Download here
• ST TMS 2023 –– Download here
• PANROTAS Brazil Overview 2024-2025 — Download here

General Market situation Brazil

Brazil’s economic outlook for 2025 suggests a deceleration after a robust performance in 2024 [2, 6].

Growth and Economic Activity:

• Decelerating Growth: Economists anticipate a slowdown in Brazil’s economy in 2025. While 2024 saw growth around 3%, projections for 2025 estimate GDP growth to exceed 2% [2, 3]. The government projects a 2.64% GDP growth[1]. A survey of economists indicates a median GDP growth expectation of 2% for 2025, following an estimated 3.5% increase in 2024[6].
• Key Sectors: The agricultural sector is expected to perform well, though domestic consumption, a primary growth driver in 2024, may slow due to potential interest rate hikes aimed at curbing inflation [3, 6].
• Economic Activity Index: The IBC-Br Index of Economic Activity in Brazil increased 0.1% month-on-month in November 2024[5].

Fiscal Policy and Inflation:

• Inflation Concerns: Inflation is a significant concern, with forecasts around 4.96% for 2025, potentially requiring tighter monetary policies[4]. The Broad National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) forecast for next year has increased from 3.1 percent to 3.3 percent[1].
• Interest Rates: The expectation is that the Selic rate will average 9.61 percent per year by the end of 2025[1]. The monetary tightening cycle is expected to continue, with the SELIC rate forecast to converge to around 12.75% by 1Q25[2].
• Fiscal Measures: The Brazilian Finance Minister has announced measures to reduce federal spending to support the country’s fiscal framework[4].

Investment and Opportunities:

• Privatization: Privatization is expected to continue to be on the agenda throughout 2025, which will create opportunities for foreign investors, especially in energy, water and sewage infrastructure, road and rail infrastructure and airport operations[4].
• FDI: Brazil offers a stable legal environment and tax reforms designed to attract foreign capital, making sectors like technology, clean energy, agribusiness, and infrastructure particularly appealing[4].

Sources
[1] 2025 budget projects 2.64% growth for Brazilian economy https://agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br/en/economia/noticia/2024-09/2025-budget-projects-264-growth-brazilian-economy
[2] Brazil Economic Outlook. December 2024 https://www.bbvaresearch.com/en/publicaciones/brazil-economic-outlook-december-2024/
[3] The Brazilian Market by 2025: From challenges to … https://www.bazk.com/blog/the-brazilian-market-by-2025-from-challenges-to-opportunities
[4] Looking forward to the opportunities of 2025: The future of … https://www.vieirarezende.com.br/brazil-briefs-articles/looking-forward-to-the-opportunities-of-2025-the-future-of-investment-in-brazil
[5] Brazil IBC-Br Economic Activity Index https://tradingeconomics.com/brazil/leading-economic-index
[6] See what economists expect for Brazil’s GDP in 2025 | Economy https://valorinternational.globo.com/economy/news/2024/12/30/see-what-economists-expect-for-brazils-gdp-in-2025.ghtml
[7] Scenarios Brazil 2025 and 2026 https://www.bocombbm.com.br/bbm-content./uploads/2024/11/monthly-macro-letter_november24.pdf
[8] Brazil | Macroeconomic Analysis | Itaú BBA https://www.itau.com.br/itaubba-pt/analises-economicas/brazil
[9] Brazil’s GDP Growth: From 3.5% to 2% in 2025 https://www.riotimesonline.com/brazils-gdp-growth-from-3-5-to-2-in-2025/
[10] Brazil’s financial market projects inflation rate of 5.51% this year https://agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br/en/economia/noticia/2025-02/brazils-financial-market-projects-inflation-rate-551-year
[11] Brazil Indicators https://tradingeconomics.com/brazil/indicators
[12] Brazil’s financial markets adjust 2025 projections for the … https://en.mercopress.com/2024/12/30/brazil-s-financial-markets-adjust-2025-projections-for-the-worse
[13] Top Risks 2025: Implications for Brazil https://www.eurasiagroup.net/issues/Top-Risks-2025-Implications-for-Brazil
[14] With growth in Services and Industry, GDP grows 0.9% in … https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-news/2184-news-agency/news/42075-com-alta-em-servicos-e-industria-pib-avanca-0-9-no-terceiro-trimestre-2
[15] Improved market access for Brazil in Nigeria, Mexico, US … https://www.gov.br/secom/en/latest-news/2025/01/improved-market-access-for-brazil-in-nigeria-mexico-us-boosts-agribusiness-in-2025
[16] Brazil | Economic Indicators | Moody’s Analytics https://www.economy.com/brazil/indicators
[17] Brazil’s real likely to stay under pressure in 2025 | Markets https://valorinternational.globo.com/markets/news/2024/12/27/brazils-real-likely-to-stay-under-pressure-in-2025.ghtml
[18] Brazil | Data https://data.worldbank.org/country/brazil
[19] How Brazil became a target for dollar speculation https://www.brasildefato.com.br/2025/01/14/how-brazil-became-a-target-for-dollar-speculation
[20] Lula: income distribution, social inclusion, economic growth … https://www.gov.br/planalto/en/latest-news/2025/02/lula-income-distribution-social-inclusion-economic-growth-education-democratic-civility-all-3rd-term-hallmarks

Brazil’s economy in late 2024 and early 2025 presents a mixed picture of robust growth, rising concerns about inflation, and evolving economic strategies.

Economic Growth and Performance:

• Strong Performance in 2024: Brazil’s economy outperformed expectations in 2024, with real GDP growth of 5.9% between the first and second quarters and 2.8% year-over-year[1]. Many forecasters had initially anticipated growth of only 1.6% for the year[1].
• Growth Drivers: Consumer spending and business investment were particularly strong[1]. The labor market tightened, with the unemployment rate falling to 6.7% in August 2024, the lowest since 2014. Average earnings rose 9.6% year-over-year in August 2024[1].
• Tourism Boost: Brazilian tourists are expected to inject BRL 148.3 billion into the economy during the summer of December 2024 to February 2025, with a 34% increase in average spending compared to the previous year[4].

Inflation and Monetary Policy:

• Inflation Concerns: Headline inflation accelerated to 4.4% in September 2024, выше the BCB’s (Banco Central do Brasil) target range[1]. The BCB raised interest rates by 25 basis points in September 2024 due to concerns about rising inflation[1].
• Interest Rate Adjustments: The BCB had lowered rates from 13.75% in July 2023 to 10.5% in May 2024 but is expected to raise them again[1].
• Factors Driving Inflation: Rising wages and strong domestic demand are contributing to inflationary pressure[1]. Volatile food prices are also a main driver of inflation[1].

Fiscal Policy and Government Finances:

• Fiscal Deficit: The government expects a primary deficit of 28.3 billion reais (US$3.8 billion) for the current year[1].
• Debt and Credit Rating: Moody’s upgraded Brazil’s sovereign rating from Ba2 to Ba1 in September 2024, putting it one notch below investment grade[1].
• BRICS Presidency: Brazil assumed the presidency of BRICS in January 2025, prioritizing Global South cooperation and reforming global governance structures[5].

Credit Market and Lending:

• Lending Surge: Brazil’s credit market has grown in 2024, boosting economic activity[2].
• Credit Impulse: A study indicated that Brazil’s credit impulse stands at around 4% of GDP[2].
• Concerns for 2025: Economists caution that the lending surge is unlikely to continue into 2025, contributing to an anticipated economic slowdown. Rising interest rates and worsening inflation expectations could hurt disposable income and slow the credit market[2].

Gambling Market

• Regulation and Consolidation: 2025 is expected to be a year of consolidation for gambling in Brazil as regulations are interpreted and finalized[3].
• Challenges: The gambling sector faces challenges related to public pressure and negative perceptions, as well as operational difficulties such as KYC compliance[3].

Sources
[1] Brazil economic outlook, November 2024 https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/economy/americas/brazil-economic-outlook.html
[2] Lending surge powers Brazil’s economy, but outlook darkens for 2025 https://valorinternational.globo.com/economy/news/2024/12/26/lending-surge-powers-brazils-economy-but-outlook-darkens-for-2025.ghtml
[3] 2025 a year of stability in Brazil as sector interprets new regulations, says legal expert https://igamingbusiness.com/legal-compliance/regulation/brazil-gambling-market-consolidation-2025/
[4] Brazilian tourists to inject BRL 148B into the economy during summer https://agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br/en/geral/noticia/2024-12/brazilian-tourists-inject-brl-148b-economy-during-summer
[5] Brazil takes over the BRICS presidency in 2025 — Planalto https://www.gov.br/planalto/en/latest-news/2025/01/brazil-assumes-the-presidency-of-brics-in-2025
[6] 【race casino】 Português https://www.educacao.df.gov.br/race-casino/g00000bib9.shtml
[7] Brazil Potash Schedules Business Update Call https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2025/02/06/3022461/0/en/Brazil-Potash-Schedules-Business-Update-Call.html
[8] Trump tariffs updates: US president to hold talks with Canada and Mexico https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/liveblog/2025/2/2/trump-tariffs-live-canada-mexico-hit-back-as-china-vows-countermeasures
[9] Brazil’s new lower house speaker targets fiscal stability as priority https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/brazils-new-lower-house-speaker-targets-fiscal-stability-priority-2025-02-04/
[10] Brazil’s Dock names Thiago Teixeira as new CTO https://www.fintechfutures.com/2025/02/brazils-dock-names-thiago-teixeira-as-new-cto/
[11] Trump’s tariffs raise fears Brazil’s central bank is out of step on inflation https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/trumps-tariffs-raise-fears-brazils-central-bank-is-out-step-inflation-2025-02-03/
[12] Economic Optimism Meets Political Complexity: Insights from Brazil’s 2024 Municipal Elections https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/economic-optimism-meets-political-complexity-insights-brazils-2024-municipal-elections
[13] New law in Brazil is making students put away their smartphones at school https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2025/02/06/brazil-bill-phones-schools-restrictions/a5a7a592-e4c2-11ef-ab83-bb30e4340014_story.html
[14] São Paulo | Brazil’s Most Populous State & Major City https://www.britannica.com/place/Sao-Paulo-state-Brazil
[15] OECD Economic Outlook, Interim Report September 2024 https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/oecd-economic-outlook-interim-report-september-2024_1517c196-en.html
[16] Brazil’s real sets longest streak of gains in 20 years https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/brazils-real-sets-longest-streak-gains-20-years-2025-02-03/
[17] World Economic Situation and Prospects September 2024 Update | Department of Economic and Social Affairs https://www.un.org/development/desa/dpad/publication/world-economic-situation-and-prospects-september-2024-update/
[18] An introduction to Flair Brazil 2025 – Movements under the surface: tectonic tensions and real opportunities https://www.ipsos.com/en/flair-collection/introduction-flair-brazil-2025-movements-under-surface-tectonic-tensions-and-real-opportunities
[19] Major Potash Developer Announces Strategic Update: Key Details Investors Can’t Miss https://www.stocktitan.net/news/GRO/brazil-potash-schedules-business-update-fqhgm1h8i07r.html
[20] Trump’s Assault on Foreign Aid Threatens Brazil’s Efforts to Fight Deforestation and Poverty https://therevelator.org/trump-amazon-deforestation/

Brazil is preparing for the summer high season, the greatest period for trips in the country. The expectation is very positive, although it still presents some bottlenecks, especially in the air sector. Check out some perspectives for the next few months:

• The domestic tourism is trendy, however, with the flight offer being nearly the same as last season. That’s because the airlines suffer with the lack of new airplanes due to the delay coming from the manufacturers.

• The international tourism is growing, but the flight offer hasn’t reached pre-pandemic levels yet. Europe still has the advantage of having more flights and presenting better prices in comparison to the United States.

• The expectation is to end the year with more than 1.5 million Brazilian visitors in the United States, still a lower number compared with the 2.2 million in 2019.

• 5.8 million Brazilians already have the American visa and are able to travel.

• 1.3 million Brazilians should get the American visa this year.

• Waiting lines are occurring for visas that are being requested for the first time. The average waiting period to get a visa to the US is 190 days (it has already reached 660 days in June of this year). The U.S. Consulate’s estimation in São Paulo is to end the long lines by June 2024.

• The American airlines are also starting the phase of seasonal increase in flights: American Airlines and Delta Air Lines will have additional flights from São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro to the United States.

• Great American attractions and theme parks should finish 2023 with the indicators equal to the ones in 2019, and Brazil is Top 3 in the main parks in Orlando, Florida.

• Despite the preference for Florida, in the United States, other destinations can already see an increase in Brazilians’ demand, such as New York and California.

Google disclosed an unprecedented study about Brazilian travelers’ new consumption behavior, which has changed quite a bit from 2019 to 2023.

According to the study, the new featured behaviors are:

1 Tourism in Brazil becomes terrestrial 

Currently, the new traveler seeks, predominantly, smaller-distance routes, as for national destinations, aiming for shorter itineraries. According to Google, there was an increase of 156% in the search for routes totaling up to 250 kilometers of distance from 2019 to 2023, while the search for routes with up to 3.5 thousand kilometers decreased 77% in the period. “This generates a structural change of Tourism in Brazil, which becomes a terrestrial Tourism”, Martiniano points out.

2 Half of consumers’ interests are regarding accommodation.

Accommodation, which in 2019 represented 35% of the interest of Brazilian consumers, currently represents 50%. From 2019 until now, the search for hotels increased 99%, while the search for airlines increased 1%, reaching the same threshold as in 2019.

3 The traveler’s journey is digital

Nowadays, the discovery journey of travelers is predominantly digital. Searches on Google and on YouTube are leading, and apps have a prominent role in the country. Brazilians pass 5h20m per day on apps, just staying behind Indonesia.

4 Tourism can become protagonist on Black Friday

The Tourism segment presents great potential on Black Friday. Google’s studies show that 71% of consumers want to buy trips on Black Friday, but 49% have never bought them, so there is indeed a demand and interest for purchasing trips within the period.

The interests of the traveler who buys on Black Friday is, mainly, on:

1o place – Accommodation (60%);

2o place – Package Deals (59%);

3o place – Flight Tickets (53%);

4o place – Sightseeing Tours (41%);

5o place – Tickets for Tourist Attractions (26%); 

6o place – Car Rental (25%)

7o place – Bus Tickets (17%); 

8o place – Cruises (16%).

The study also indicates that offers or package deals for trips ranging from four to ten days can have emphasis for consumers, as well as personalized offers beyond ten days for the high-end public.

5 Favorable consumption scenario

The economic scenario in Brazil brings an optimistic perspective this year. When questioned if the economy in the country will be better by the end of the year, 51% of Brazilians answered yes, considering as well that their own financial situation will also improve. That means a consumption longing; Brazilians are more optimistic.

WHAT BRANDS AND DESTINATIONS ARE THE MOST SEARCHED FOR IN TOURISM? 

In the browse on Google, the airlines lead the ranking.

Gol (7.8%); Latam (7%); Google Flights; And Azul.

As for searches for generic terms, “beach” is the preferred one of Brazilians.

In the search for destinations, Rio de Janeiro prevails in Google’s searches, while internationally, Orlando is the most browsed destination. This isn’t exactly new, but now Curaçao is also in the spotlight, presenting a monthly growth.

The Brazil market focuses primarily on the personas Quinn and Kris. Find more information about the personas here.